Benfica–Real Madrid

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 17 February 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: Kylian Mbappé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Benfica		Real Madrid
10	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
444	Passes	624
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Benfica 1.49 · Real Madrid 1.44. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Benfica 10 · Real Madrid 16; on target 3 and 7.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Letexier→

4.00

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “Real Madrid to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Benfica, 1.44 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,494 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Benfica to win39.1%

Draw23.9%

Real Madrid to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Benfica score1.49

Attack: Benfica score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.49 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Real Madrid score1.44

Attack: Real Madrid score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.44 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–18.5%1–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.