UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 8

Pafos–Slavia Praha

4–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'PafosV. Dragomir
44'Slavia PrahaŠ. Chaloupek (assist: D. Doudera)
53'PafosBruno
59'Slavia PrahaJ. Boril · red card
84'PafosAnderson Silva (assist: Mislav Oršić)
87'PafosMislav Oršić (assist: K. Pileas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Slavia Praha
17	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
344	Passes	424
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 0.97 · Slavia Praha 1.58. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Pafos 17 · Slavia Praha 13; on target 8 and 3.
Slavia Praha kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.72

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Slavia Praha to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Pafos, 1.58 for Slavia Praha.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (X2 — draw or Slavia Praha win).
These values were computed from 1,684 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win23.6%

Draw24.5%

Slavia Praha to win51.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score0.97

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.97 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Slavia Praha score1.58

Attack: Slavia Praha score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.58 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–112.7%1–111.6%0–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.