UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 8

Athletic Club–Sporting CP

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Athletic ClubOihan Sancet
12'Sporting CPO. Diomande (assist: M. Araújo)
28'Athletic ClubGorka Guruzeta
62'Sporting CPTrincao
90'Sporting CPAlisson Santos

Match statistics

Match statistics
Athletic Club		Sporting CP
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
35%	Possession	65%
306	Passes	590
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Athletic Club 1.05 · Sporting CP 1.34. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Athletic Club 9 · Sporting CP 9; on target 2 and 6.
Sporting CP kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. Zwayer→

4.61

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “Athletic Club to win” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Athletic Club, 1.34 for Sporting CP.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,438 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Athletic Club to win29.8%

Draw26.6%

Sporting CP to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Athletic Club score1.05

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting CP score1.34

Attack: Sporting CP score 70% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.7%1–112.5%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.