UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 8

Bayer Leverkusen–Villarreal

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 28 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Bayer LeverkusenMalik Tillman
35'Bayer LeverkusenMalik Tillman (assist: Patrik Schick)
57'Bayer LeverkusenÁlex Grimaldo (assist: Lucas Vázquez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Villarreal
15	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
790	Passes	419
732	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 1.74 · Villarreal 1.31. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 15 · Villarreal 5; on target 7 and 2.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “Villarreal to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.31 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,437 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win47.9%

Draw22.9%

Villarreal to win29.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.74

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.31

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–19.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.