UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 7

Real Madrid–Monaco

6–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: F. Valverde)
26'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: Vinícius Júnior)
51'Real MadridFranco Mastantuono (assist: Vinícius Júnior)
55'Real MadridT. Kehrer (own goal · assist: Vinícius Júnior)
63'Real MadridVinícius Júnior (assist: A. Guler)
72'Monaco

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Monaco
25	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	6
20	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	6
0	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
482	Passes	509
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 2.71 · Monaco 1.18. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots Real Madrid 25 · Monaco 20; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.9%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.71 for Real Madrid, 1.18 for Monaco.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — Real Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,493 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win69.9%

Draw15.7%

Monaco to win14.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

80'Real MadridJ. Bellingham (assist: F. Valverde)

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Madrid win or draw85.6%

12 — any result other than a draw84.3%

X2 — draw or Monaco win30.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (15.7%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score2.71

Attack: Real Madrid score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monaco score1.18

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.9%3–18.0%2–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2493 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 124 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.