UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 7

FC Copenhagen–Napoli

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'FC CopenhagenThomas Delaney · red card
39'NapoliS. McTominay (assist: Eljif Elmas)
72'FC CopenhagenJ. Larsson

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Napoli
5	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	11
1	Offsides	2
30%	Possession	70%
295	Passes	699
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 1.08 · Napoli 1.40. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FC Copenhagen 5 · Napoli 19; on target 4 and 5.
Napoli kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

I. Peljto→

3.91

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Napoli to win”. Second comes “FC Copenhagen to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for FC Copenhagen, 1.40 for Napoli.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,944 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win29.5%

Draw25.9%

Napoli to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score1.08

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napoli score1.40

Attack: Napoli score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%0–112.1%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.