UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 7

Tottenham–Borussia Dortmund

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'TottenhamC. Romero (assist: W. Odobert)
26'Borussia DortmundD. Svensson · red card
37'TottenhamD. Solanke (assist: W. Odobert)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tottenham		Borussia Dortmund
16	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
15	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
460	Passes	401
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.17 · Borussia Dortmund 1.76. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Tottenham 16 · Borussia Dortmund 6; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

G. Nyberg→

3.45

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “Tottenham to win” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Tottenham, 1.76 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,437 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tottenham to win25.7%

Draw22.8%

Borussia Dortmund to win51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tottenham score1.17

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.76

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%0–19.7%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.