UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 7

Bodo/Glimt–Manchester City

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 20 January 2026 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
24'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
58'Bodo/GlimtJ. Hauge (assist: S. Fet)
60'Manchester CityR. Cherki (assist: N. O'Reilly)
62'Manchester CityRodri · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Manchester City
8	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	9
6	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
368	Passes	696
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.54 · Manchester City 1.71. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 8 · Manchester City 16; on target 5 and 5.
Manchester City kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.94

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Manchester City to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.71 for Manchester City.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,319 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win35.2%

Draw22.5%

Manchester City to win42.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.54

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Manchester City concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.54 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Manchester City score1.71

Attack: Manchester City score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.71 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–19.9%1–28.7%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.