UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 6

Club Brugge KV–Arsenal

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 10 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'ArsenalN. Madueke
47'ArsenalN. Madueke (assist: Martín Zubimendi)
56'ArsenalG. Martinelli

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Arsenal
18	Shots	20
7	Shots on target	11
11	Shots inside the box	12
7	Goalkeeper saves	7
1	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
474	Passes	477
421	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 1.01 · Arsenal 1.44. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Club Brugge KV 18 · Arsenal 20; on target 7 and 11.

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.92

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.4%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “Club Brugge KV to win” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Club Brugge KV, 1.44 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,282 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win26.8%

Draw25.8%

Arsenal to win47.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score1.01

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.01 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Arsenal score1.44

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.8%1–112.2%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.