UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 6

Villarreal–FC Copenhagen

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 10 December 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'FC CopenhagenM. Elyounoussi (assist: Marcos López)
47'VillarrealSanti Comesaña (assist: Ilias Akhomach)
48'FC CopenhagenE. Achouri (assist: Y. Zague)
56'VillarrealT. Oluwaseyi (assist: Alfonso Pedraza)
90'FC CopenhagenA. Cornelius

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal		FC Copenhagen
19	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
424	Passes	409
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Villarreal 2.01 · FC Copenhagen 1.15. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Villarreal 19 · FC Copenhagen 8; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

I. Kruzliak→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.7%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “FC Copenhagen to win” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Villarreal, 1.15 for FC Copenhagen.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Villarreal to win57.7%

Draw20.8%

FC Copenhagen to win21.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Villarreal score2.01

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.01 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score1.15

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%1–19.5%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.