UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 6

Inter–Liverpool

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 9 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Liverpool
9	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
487	Passes	498
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 1.92 · Liverpool 1.32. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Inter 9 · Liverpool 12; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

F. Zwayer→

4.64

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Inter to win”. Second comes “Liverpool to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Inter, 1.32 for Liverpool.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,570 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win51.8%

Draw21.6%

Liverpool to win26.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score1.92

Attack: Inter score 53% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Liverpool score1.32

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–19.6%2–19.5%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.