UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5

Sporting CP–Club Brugge KV

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Sporting CPGeovany Tcherno Quenda (assist: Geny Catamo)
31'Sporting CPL. Suárez (assist: Geny Catamo)
70'Sporting CPTrincao (assist: Geovany Tcherno Quenda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Club Brugge KV
19	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
477	Passes	573
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 1.79 · Club Brugge KV 0.97. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sporting CP 19 · Club Brugge KV 8; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.71

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Sporting CP, 0.97 for Club Brugge KV.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — Sporting CP win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win57.1%

Draw22.4%

Club Brugge KV to win20.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score1.79

Attack: Sporting CP score 76% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.79 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score0.97

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.97 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–011.6%1–110.6%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.