UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5

Paris Saint Germain–Tottenham

5–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'TottenhamRicharlison (assist: Randal Kolo Muani)
45'Paris Saint GermainVitinha (assist: Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha)
50'TottenhamRandal Kolo Muani
53'Paris Saint GermainVitinha (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)
59'Paris Saint GermainFabián Ruiz (assist: J. Neves)
65'Paris Saint GermainW. Pacho

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Tottenham
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
621	Passes	290
554	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.62 · Tottenham 0.91. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 15 · Tottenham 11; on target 6 and 5.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

F. Zwayer→

4.68

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.1%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.62 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.91 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,369 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win74.1%

Draw14.9%

Tottenham to win10.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

73'TottenhamRandal Kolo Muani (assist: R. Bentancur)

76'Paris Saint GermainVitinha (penalty)

90+3'Paris Saint GermainL. Hernández · red card

10	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw89.1%

12 — any result other than a draw85.1%

X2 — draw or Tottenham win25.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (14.9%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (55.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.62

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score0.91

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.1%2–19.2%3–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2369 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 119 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.