UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5

Ajax–Benfica

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 25 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'BenficaSamuel Dahl (assist: R. Rios)
90'BenficaLeandro Barreiro (assist: Fredrik Aursnes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajax		Benfica
7	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
665	Passes	405
591	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajax 1.20 · Benfica 1.90. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Ajax 7 · Benfica 11; on target 3 and 4.
Ajax kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.95

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.9%: “Benfica to win”. Second comes “Ajax to win” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Ajax, 1.90 for Benfica.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,052 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajax to win24.3%

Draw21.8%

Benfica to win53.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajax score1.20

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Benfica concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Benfica score1.90

Attack: Benfica score 69% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%1–29.8%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.