UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Newcastle–Athletic Club

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. James' Park, Newcastle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'NewcastleD. Burn (assist: K. Trippier)
49'NewcastleJoelinton (assist: H. Barnes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Newcastle		Athletic Club
8	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
516	Passes	358
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Newcastle 1.37 · Athletic Club 1.00. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Newcastle 8 · Athletic Club 12; on target 4 and 5.
Newcastle kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

I. Kruzliak→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Newcastle to win”. Second comes “Athletic Club to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Newcastle, 1.00 for Athletic Club.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,490 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Newcastle to win45.6%

Draw26.5%

Athletic Club to win27.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Newcastle score1.37

Attack: Newcastle score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Athletic Club score1.00

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Newcastle concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.2%1–112.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.