UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Pafos–Villarreal

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'PafosDerrick Luckassen (assist: K. Sema)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Villarreal
5	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
377	Passes	542
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 1.09 · Villarreal 1.56. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Pafos 5 · Villarreal 18; on target 2 and 5.
Villarreal kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Jablonski→

3.96

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “Pafos to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Pafos, 1.56 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,948 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win26.9%

Draw24.5%

Villarreal to win48.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score1.09

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.56

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.56 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%0–111.3%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.