UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Atletico Madrid–Union St. Gilloise

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'Atletico MadridJ. Alvarez (assist: G. Simeone)
72'Atletico MadridC. Gallagher
80'Union St. GilloiseR. Sykes (assist: S. Boufal)
90'Atletico MadridMarcos Llorente (assist: T. Almada)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Union St. Gilloise
14	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
649	Passes	324
577	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.47 · Union St. Gilloise 0.96. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Atletico Madrid 14 · Union St. Gilloise 8; on target 6 and 3.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

E. Eskas→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Atletico Madrid, 0.96 for Union St. Gilloise.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,210 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win49.3%

Draw25.6%

Union St. Gilloise to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.47

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.47 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score0.96

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.96 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–013.3%1–112.1%2–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.