UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Slavia Praha–Arsenal

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 November 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'ArsenalB. Saka (penalty)
46'ArsenalMikel Merino (assist: L. Trossard)
68'ArsenalMikel Merino (assist: D. Rice)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Slavia Praha		Arsenal
9	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
5	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
258	Passes	344
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Slavia Praha 0.84 · Arsenal 1.15. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Slavia Praha 9 · Arsenal 14; on target 1 and 8.
Arsenal kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Aghayev→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Slavia Praha, 1.15 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (X2 — draw or Arsenal win).
These values were computed from 2,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Slavia Praha to win26.9%

Draw29.6%

Arsenal to win43.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

31	Fouls	0

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Slavia Praha score0.84

Attack: Slavia Praha score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.84 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Arsenal score1.15

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Slavia Praha concede 51% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–116.2%0–013.3%1–112.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.