UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3

Union St. Gilloise–Inter

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'InterD. Dumfries (assist: Yann Bisseck)
45'InterLautaro Martínez (assist: Pio Esposito)
53'InterH. Calhanoglu (penalty)
76'InterPio Esposito (assist: Ange-Yoan Bonny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		Inter
15	Shots	21
6	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	17
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
294	Passes	669
234	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 1.28 · Inter 1.19. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 15 · Inter 21; on target 6 and 7.
Inter kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

G. Nyberg→

3.47

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “Inter to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Union St. Gilloise, 1.19 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,154 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win39.0%

Draw26.4%

Inter to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score1.28

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.19

Attack: Inter score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.19 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–011.2%0–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.