UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

FC Copenhagen–Bayer Leverkusen

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 18 September 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FC CopenhagenJ. Larsson (assist: E. Achouri)
82'Bayer LeverkusenÁlex Grimaldo
87'FC CopenhagenRobert (assist: R. Huescas)
90'Bayer LeverkusenPantelis Hatzidiakos (own goal · assist: Claudio Echeverri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Bayer Leverkusen
12	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
364	Passes	647
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 1.36 · Bayer Leverkusen 1.60. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Copenhagen 12 · Bayer Leverkusen 15; on target 7 and 4.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Aghayev→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “FC Copenhagen to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for FC Copenhagen, 1.60 for Bayer Leverkusen.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,479 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win32.8%

Draw23.6%

Bayer Leverkusen to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score1.36

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score1.60

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–29.0%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.