UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Club Brugge KV–Red Bull Salzburg

3–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 12 August 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Red Bull SalzburgJ. Rasmussen (assist: M. Kjærgaard)
42'Red Bull SalzburgE. Baidoo (assist: Stefan Lainer)
61'Club Brugge KVJ. Seys (assist: K. Sabbe)
83'Club Brugge KVCarlos Forbs
90'Club Brugge KVH. Vanaken (assist: C. Tzolis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Red Bull Salzburg
23	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
492	Passes	406
420	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.56 · Red Bull Salzburg 0.96. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Club Brugge KV 23 · Red Bull Salzburg 12; on target 9 and 3.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Peljto→

3.97

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.1%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.56 for Club Brugge KV, 0.96 for Red Bull Salzburg.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,378 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win72.1%

Draw15.7%

Red Bull Salzburg to win12.2%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.56

Attack: Club Brugge KV score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.56 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score0.96

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.96 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–09.7%2–19.3%3–08.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.