UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Lech Poznan–FK Crvena Zvezda

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 6 August 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FK Crvena ZvezdaR. Krunic (assist: C. Ndiaye)
34'Lech PoznanM. Ishak (assist: J. Moutinho)
51'FK Crvena ZvezdaR. Krunic
73'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: M. Ivanic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lech Poznan		FK Crvena Zvezda
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
516	Passes	349
432	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lech Poznan 1.69 · FK Crvena Zvezda 1.64. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Lech Poznan 11 · FK Crvena Zvezda 12; on target 4 and 6.
Lech Poznan kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

3.73

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Lech Poznan to win”. Second comes “FK Crvena Zvezda to win” at 37.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Lech Poznan, 1.64 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,768 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lech Poznan to win39.9%

Draw22.3%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lech Poznan score1.69

Attack: Lech Poznan score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score1.64

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 119% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lech Poznan's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.6%2–18.4%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.