UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Maccabi Tel Aviv–Pafos

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 30 July 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Maccabi Tel AvivO. Melika · red card
40'PafosJaja (assist: Bruno)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.52 · Pafos 1.07. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

R. M. Petrescu→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win”. Second comes “Pafos to win” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Maccabi Tel Aviv, 1.07 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,271 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win48.1%

Draw24.9%

Pafos to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Maccabi Tel Aviv win or draw73.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.1%

X2 — draw or Pafos win51.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.9%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (55.2%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.52

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.52 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Pafos score1.07

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–011.8%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1271 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.