UEFA Champions League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Pafos–Maccabi Tel Aviv

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 22 July 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'PafosM. Bassouamina
90'Maccabi Tel AvivE. Madmon

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 1.31 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.24. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.12

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “Maccabi Tel Aviv to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Pafos, 1.24 for Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,271 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win38.6%

Draw25.9%

Maccabi Tel Aviv to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw64.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv win61.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score1.31

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Maccabi Tel Aviv score1.24

Attack: Maccabi Tel Aviv score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.24 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–010.6%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.