UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round

Dinamo Minsk–Ludogorets

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'LudogoretsErick Marcus (assist: Edvin Kurtulus)
54'Dinamo MinskMoustapha Djimet (assist: D. Podstrelov)
62'Dinamo MinskPedro Igor (assist: Moustapha Djimet)
100'LudogoretsE. Bile

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dinamo Minsk 0.60 · Ludogorets 1.99. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

G. Kikacheishvili→

5.33

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.5%: “Ludogorets to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.60 for Dinamo Minsk, 1.99 for Ludogorets.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (X2 — draw or Ludogorets win).
These values were computed from 1,573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dinamo Minsk to win10.5%

Draw19.0%

Ludogorets to win70.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 244 of 561 predictions were correct (43.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Dinamo Minsk win or draw29.5%

12 — any result other than a draw81.0%

X2 — draw or Ludogorets win89.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (55.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dinamo Minsk score0.60

Attack: Dinamo Minsk score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Ludogorets concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ludogorets score1.99

Attack: Ludogorets score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Dinamo Minsk concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.99 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

0–115.2%0–214.8%0–39.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1573 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 104 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.