Real Betis–Chelsea

1–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 28 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tarczyński Arena, Wrocław

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Real BetisA. Ezzalzouli (assist: Isco)
65'ChelseaE. Fernandez (assist: C. Palmer)
70'ChelseaN. Jackson (assist: C. Palmer)
83'ChelseaJ. Sancho (assist: K. Dewsbury-Hall)
90+1'ChelseaM. Caicedo (assist: E. Fernandez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Betis		Chelsea
13	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
34%	Possession	66%
296	Passes	592
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Betis 1.42 · Chelsea 1.54. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Real Betis 13 · Chelsea 11; on target 3 and 7.
Chelsea kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

I. Peljto→

3.93

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Chelsea to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Real Betis, 1.54 for Chelsea.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,280 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Betis to win35.6%

Draw23.8%

Chelsea to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Betis score1.42

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chelsea score1.54

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–28.7%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.