UEFA Europa Conference League · Semi-finals

Chelsea–Djurgardens IF

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 8 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stamford Bridge, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'ChelseaK. Dewsbury-Hall (assist: Tyrique George)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Chelsea		Djurgardens IF
17	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
678	Passes	368
626	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Chelsea 2.50 · Djurgardens IF 0.71. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Chelsea 17 · Djurgardens IF 12; on target 5 and 3.
Chelsea kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.58

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.7%: “Chelsea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Chelsea, 0.71 for Djurgardens IF.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Chelsea win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,885 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Chelsea to win76.7%

Draw14.6%

Djurgardens IF to win8.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Chelsea score2.50

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Djurgardens IF concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Djurgardens IF score0.71

Attack: Djurgardens IF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%3–010.5%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.