UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

Fiorentina–Celje

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 17 April 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 13%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'FiorentinaRolando Mandragora (assist: Marin Pongračić)
54'CeljeA. Matko (assist: Mark Zabukovnik)
65'CeljeK. Nemanič (assist: Svit Sešlar)
67'FiorentinaM. Kean (assist: Rolando Mandragora)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fiorentina		Celje
10	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
5	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
293	Passes	523
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fiorentina 2.87 · Celje 0.85. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Fiorentina 10 · Celje 12; on target 5 and 4.
Celje kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.64

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.0%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.87 for Fiorentina, 0.85 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 91.7% (1X — Fiorentina win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,588 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fiorentina to win79.0%

Draw12.7%

Celje to win8.3%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fiorentina score2.87

Attack: Fiorentina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score0.85

Attack: Celje score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.0%3–09.6%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.