UEFA Europa Conference League · Quarter-finals

Legia Warszawa–Chelsea

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 April 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warszawa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'ChelseaTyrique George
57'ChelseaN. Madueke (assist: J. Sancho)
74'ChelseaN. Madueke (assist: J. Sancho)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Legia Warszawa		Chelsea
8	Shots	24
1	Shots on target	10
5	Shots inside the box	15
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
28%	Possession	72%
297	Passes	782
233	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Legia Warszawa 1.47 · Chelsea 1.82. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Legia Warszawa 8 · Chelsea 24; on target 1 and 10.
Chelsea kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

S. Gözübüyük→

3.87

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “Chelsea to win”. Second comes “Legia Warszawa to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Legia Warszawa, 1.82 for Chelsea.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,924 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Legia Warszawa to win31.6%

Draw22.1%

Chelsea to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Legia Warszawa score1.47

Attack: Legia Warszawa score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Chelsea's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Chelsea score1.82

Attack: Chelsea score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Legia Warszawa's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%1–29.1%2–17.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.