UEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16

FC Lugano–Celje

5–4

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 March 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun

The match was decided on penalties: it was level after 90 minutes and extra time, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Lugano 2.11 · Celje 1.39. On the pitch: 5-4.

Referee

A. Treimanis→

6.05

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “FC Lugano to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for FC Lugano, 1.39 for Celje.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,039 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Lugano to win54.4%

Draw20.4%

Celje to win25.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Lugano win or draw74.8%

12 — any result other than a draw79.6%

X2 — draw or Celje win45.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (51.0%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Lugano score2.11

Attack: FC Lugano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celje score1.39

Attack: Celje score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Lugano's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.4%1–18.6%2–06.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1039 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.