UEFA Europa Conference League · Knockout Round Play-offs

Celje–Apoel Nicosia

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 February 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Z'dežele, Celje

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'CeljeArmandas Kučys (assist: Svit Sešlar)
32'Apoel NicosiaDavid Abagna (assist: S. Dražić)
59'CeljeArmandas Kučys
70'Apoel NicosiaKonstantinos Laifis (assist: Sergio Tejera)
73'Apoel NicosiaLasha Dvali · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celje		Apoel Nicosia
7	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
487	Passes	320
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 1.32 · Apoel Nicosia 1.72. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Celje 7 · Apoel Nicosia 7; on target 5 and 5.
Celje kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.20

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “Celje to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Celje, 1.72 for Apoel Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,037 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win29.7%

Draw23.0%

Apoel Nicosia to win47.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score1.32

Attack: Celje score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.72

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%1–29.4%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.