UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6

FC Lugano–Pafos

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 December 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stockhorn Arena, Thun

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'PafosA. Saipi (own goal)
7'FC LuganoM. Belhadj (assist: Mattia Zanotti)
33'FC LuganoM. Bottani (assist: Mattia Zanotti)
90+5'PafosD. Goldar (assist: Muamer Tanković)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Lugano		Pafos
12	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
410	Passes	427
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Lugano 1.21 · Pafos 1.37. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Lugano 12 · Pafos 15; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

N. Minaković→

3.94

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “FC Lugano to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for FC Lugano, 1.37 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,022 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Lugano to win33.4%

Draw25.6%

Pafos to win41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Lugano score1.21

Attack: FC Lugano score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pafos score1.37

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Lugano's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%0–110.8%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.