UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6

Djurgardens IF–Legia Warszawa

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 December 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: 3Arena, Stockholm

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Djurgardens IFTokmac Nguen (assist: Daniel Stensson)
45+4'Djurgardens IFD. Hümmet (assist: Tokmac Nguen)
56'Legia WarszawaP. Wszolek (assist: K. Chodyna)
76'Djurgardens IFP. Åslund (assist: Daniel Stensson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Djurgardens IF		Legia Warszawa
12	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
404	Passes	315
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Djurgardens IF 1.03 · Legia Warszawa 1.80. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Djurgardens IF 12 · Legia Warszawa 15; on target 6 and 4.
Djurgardens IF kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Šmajc→

4.12

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Legia Warszawa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Djurgardens IF, 1.80 for Legia Warszawa.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Legia Warszawa win).
These values were computed from 1,494 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Djurgardens IF to win21.9%

Draw22.4%

Legia Warszawa to win55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Djurgardens IF score1.03

Attack: Djurgardens IF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Legia Warszawa's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Legia Warszawa score1.80

Attack: Legia Warszawa score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Djurgardens IF's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–110.9%1–110.6%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.