Premier League · England · Regular Season - 22

Manchester United–Crystal Palace

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 February 2023 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Manchester UnitedBruno Fernandes (penalty)
62'Manchester UnitedM. Rashford
70'Manchester UnitedCasemiro · red card
76'Crystal PalaceJeffrey Schlupp (assist: C. Doucoure)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manchester United		Crystal Palace
14	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
487	Passes	426
416	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manchester United 2.13 · Crystal Palace 0.62. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Manchester United 14 · Crystal Palace 10; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

A. Marriner→

3.89

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.1%: “Manchester United to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for Manchester United, 0.71 for Crystal Palace.
The highest double chance value is 90.3% (1X — Manchester United win or draw).
These values were computed from 201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manchester United to win71.1%

Draw19.3%

Crystal Palace to win9.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manchester United lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time44.0%

Crystal Palace lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Manchester United ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Crystal Palace ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manchester United: at least 11Actual: 9
Crystal Palace: at least 8Actual: 9

Corners

Manchester United: at least 4Actual: 5
Crystal Palace: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manchester United score2.13

Attack: Manchester United score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Crystal Palace concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Crystal Palace score0.62

Attack: Crystal Palace score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Manchester United concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.8%1–011.8%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.