UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6

Vitória SC–Fiorentina

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 December 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Vitória SCGustavo Silva (assist: Kaio César)
87'FiorentinaRolando Mandragora

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		Fiorentina
17	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
392	Passes	458
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.00 · Fiorentina 1.47. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Vitória SC 17 · Fiorentina 12; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

J. Xhaja→

4.67

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Fiorentina to win”. Second comes “Vitória SC to win” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Vitória SC, 1.47 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,656 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win26.0%

Draw25.5%

Fiorentina to win48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.00

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.47

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.8%1–112.1%0–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.