Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Hatayspor–Eyüpspor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mersin Stadyumu, Mersin

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'EyüpsporM. Thiam

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hatayspor		Eyüpspor
10	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	15
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
290	Passes	434
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hatayspor 1.29 · Eyüpspor 1.62. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Hatayspor 10 · Eyüpspor 21; on target 4 and 4.
Eyüpspor kept the ball more (60%).

Unavailable players

Hatayspor

A. Parmakout · yellow-card suspension
F. Calvoout · red-card suspension
L. Diackout · injury

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
I. Taskinout · Muscle Injury
L. Duboisout · Muscle Injury
R. Niyazout · not in squad
S. Gumusout · injury
T. Stepanenkoout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Eyüpspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Hatayspor, 1.97 for Eyüpspor.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (X2 — draw or Eyüpspor win).
These values were computed from 959 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hatayspor to win22.9%

Draw23.5%

Eyüpspor to win53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Hatayspor lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time42.4%

Eyüpspor lead at half-time38.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hatayspor ahead or level61.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Eyüpspor ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 958 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hatayspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Eyüpspor: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Hatayspor: at least 5Actual: 2
Eyüpspor: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hatayspor score1.29

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.62

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–210.7%0–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.