UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2

Celje–Başakşehir

5–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 October 2024 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Z'dežele, Celje

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'CeljeT. Svetlin
30'CeljeIvan Brnić
34'CeljeSvit Sešlar (assist: A. Matko)
51'CeljeArmandas Kučys (assist: Svit Sešlar)
75'BaşakşehirD. Pelkas
77'CeljeArmandas Kučys (assist: Ivan Brnić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celje		Başakşehir
18	Shots	20
8	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
28%	Possession	72%
235	Passes	602
172	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celje 1.74 · Başakşehir 1.56. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Celje 18 · Başakşehir 20; on target 8 and 5.
Başakşehir kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

O. Derevinskyi→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Celje to win”. Second comes “Başakşehir to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Celje, 1.56 for Başakşehir.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,222 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celje to win42.6%

Draw22.4%

Başakşehir to win35.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celje score1.74

Attack: Celje score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Başakşehir score1.56

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celje's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%2–18.7%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.