UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offs

Mlada Boleslav–Paks

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 22 August 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'Mlada BoleslavÁkos Kinyik (own goal)
80'PaksD. Bode
85'PaksK. Papp
90+6'PaksBence Lenzsér · red card
90+7'Mlada BoleslavT. Ladra

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mlada Boleslav		Paks
15	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
588	Passes	283
459	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mlada Boleslav 1.59 · Paks 1.43. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Mlada Boleslav 15 · Paks 8; on target 2 and 4.
Mlada Boleslav kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

G. Kikacheishvili→

5.57

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Mlada Boleslav to win”. Second comes “Paks to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Mlada Boleslav, 1.43 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 968 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mlada Boleslav to win41.8%

Draw23.4%

Paks to win34.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mlada Boleslav score1.59

Attack: Mlada Boleslav score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score1.43

Attack: Paks score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mlada Boleslav's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%2–18.8%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.