UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying Round

Vitória SC–FC Zurich

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 15 August 2024 at 19:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'Vitória SCManu Silva
70'Vitória SCTelmo Arcanjo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vitória SC		FC Zurich
15	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
462	Passes	384
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vitória SC 1.50 · FC Zurich 0.90. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Vitória SC 15 · FC Zurich 10; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

O. Derevinskyi→

2.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Vitória SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Vitória SC, 0.90 for FC Zurich.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Vitória SC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,039 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vitória SC to win51.5%

Draw25.4%

FC Zurich to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vitória SC score1.50

Attack: Vitória SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Zurich concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Zurich score0.90

Attack: FC Zurich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vitória SC concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.0%1–111.9%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.