Tottenham–Manchester United

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 21 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Goals and red cards

42'TottenhamB. Johnson

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tottenham		Manchester United
3	Shots	16
1	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
27%	Possession	73%
183	Passes	514
112	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.78 · Manchester United 1.49. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Tottenham 3 · Manchester United 16; on target 1 and 6.
Manchester United kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

F. Zwayer→

4.74

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “Manchester United to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Tottenham, 1.49 for Manchester United.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tottenham to win45.0%

Draw22.3%

Manchester United to win32.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Tottenham win or draw67.3%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Manchester United win55.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tottenham score1.78

Attack: Tottenham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manchester United's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Manchester United score1.49

Attack: Manchester United score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.8%2–19.0%1–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.