Tottenham–Bodo/Glimt

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'TottenhamB. Johnson (assist: Richarlison)
34'TottenhamJ. Maddison (assist: P. Porro)
61'TottenhamD. Solanke (penalty)
83'Bodo/GlimtU. Saltnes (assist: J. Kjaer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tottenham		Bodo/Glimt
24	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
353	Passes	520
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tottenham 1.95 · Bodo/Glimt 1.59. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Tottenham 24 · Bodo/Glimt 3; on target 7 and 1.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

José Sánchez→

4.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Tottenham, 1.59 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,857 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tottenham to win46.6%

Draw21.3%

Bodo/Glimt to win32.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tottenham score1.95

Attack: Tottenham score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.59

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.8%1–18.7%1–27.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.