Eintracht Frankfurt–Ajax

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 March 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Eintracht FrankfurtJ. Bahoya (assist: H. Ekitike)
25'Eintracht FrankfurtM. Götze (assist: R. Koch)
67'Eintracht FrankfurtH. Ekitike (assist: J. Bahoya)
78'AjaxKenneth Taylor (assist: M. Godts)
82'Eintracht FrankfurtM. Götze (assist: A. Knauff)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Frankfurt		Ajax
16	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
573	Passes	498
498	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 · Ajax 1.41. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Eintracht Frankfurt 16 · Ajax 12; on target 9 and 5.

Referee

I. Peljto→

4.12

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Eintracht Frankfurt to win”. Second comes “Ajax to win” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.41 for Ajax.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,672 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Frankfurt to win50.4%

Draw21.4%

Ajax to win28.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Frankfurt score1.95

Attack: Eintracht Frankfurt score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajax concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajax score1.41

Attack: Ajax score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Frankfurt's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.3%1–19.3%1–07.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.