Bodo/Glimt–Olympiakos Piraeus

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 March 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Bodo/GlimtK. Tzolakis (own goal)
45'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: O. Didrik Blomberg)
55'Bodo/GlimtK. Høgh (assist: F. Bjørkan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Olympiakos Piraeus
9	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	7
3	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
409	Passes	417
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.31 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.36. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 9 · Olympiakos Piraeus 18; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.31

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 36.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.36 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,319 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win36.3%

Draw25.2%

Olympiakos Piraeus to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.31

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.31 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.36

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.36 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%0–19.8%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.