AZ Alkmaar–Tottenham

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 6 March 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.7% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'AZ AlkmaarL. Bergvall (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Tottenham
12	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
354	Passes	583
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.55 · Tottenham 1.60. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 12 · Tottenham 7; on target 5 and 1.
Tottenham kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

R. Obrenović→

4.31

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Tottenham to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 37.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.60 for Tottenham.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,859 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win37.6%

Draw23.0%

Tottenham to win39.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.55

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tottenham's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tottenham score1.60

Attack: Tottenham score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.3%1–28.5%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.