UEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offs

AZ Alkmaar–Galatasaray

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 February 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans
20'GalatasarayRoland Sallai
37'AZ AlkmaarT. Parrott (penalty)
51'GalatasarayK. Ayhan · red card
57'AZ AlkmaarJ. Clasie (assist: E. Poku)
66'AZ AlkmaarD. Møller Wolfe

Match statistics

Match statistics
AZ Alkmaar		Galatasaray
17	Shots	8
9	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
4	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
474	Passes	388
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AZ Alkmaar 1.52 · Galatasaray 1.30. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots AZ Alkmaar 17 · Galatasaray 8; on target 9 and 2.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “AZ Alkmaar to win”. Second comes “Galatasaray to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for AZ Alkmaar, 1.30 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,735 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AZ Alkmaar to win42.8%

Draw24.3%

Galatasaray to win32.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.52

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Galatasaray score1.30

Attack: Galatasaray score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.30 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–09.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.