UEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offs

FC Midtjylland–Real Sociedad

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Thursday, 13 February 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Real SociedadB. Mendez (penalty)
31'Real SociedadT. Kubo (assist: B. Mendez)
38'FC MidtjyllandA. Buksa (assist: O. Sørensen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Real Sociedad
13	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
60%	Possession	40%
452	Passes	294
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.28 · Real Sociedad 1.29. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Midtjylland 13 · Real Sociedad 9; on target 3 and 3.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

O. Grinfeeld→

4.57

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.3%: “Real Sociedad to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for FC Midtjylland, 1.29 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,416 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win36.9%

Draw25.8%

Real Sociedad to win37.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	22

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.28

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score1.29

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%0–110.3%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.