Ferencvarosi TC–AZ Alkmaar

4–3

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Groupama Aréna, Budapest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Ferencvarosi TCM. Ben Romdhane (assist: Adama Malouda Traoré)
34'Ferencvarosi TCAdama Malouda Traoré (assist: A. Tóth)
45'Ferencvarosi TCM. Ben Romdhane (assist: M. Abu Fani)
76'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: K. Smit)
82'Ferencvarosi TCB. Varga (penalty)
90'AZ Alkmaar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		AZ Alkmaar
11	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
305	Passes	555
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 1.48 · AZ Alkmaar 1.13. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 11 · AZ Alkmaar 11; on target 5 and 4.
AZ Alkmaar kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

N. Minaković→

4.04

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “AZ Alkmaar to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.13 for AZ Alkmaar.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,286 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win45.5%

Draw25.1%

AZ Alkmaar to win29.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

T. Parrott (assist: Seiya Maikuma)

90+5'AZ AlkmaarS. Mijnans (assist: J. Clasie)

9	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 3,614 of 7,012 predictions were correct (51.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ferencvarosi TC win or draw70.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or AZ Alkmaar win54.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.48

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: AZ Alkmaar concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.48 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AZ Alkmaar score1.13

Attack: AZ Alkmaar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–011.2%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1286 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 82 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.