FC Midtjylland–Fenerbahçe

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'FC MidtjyllandO. Diao (assist: Aral Şimşir)
39'FenerbahçeY. En Nesyri (assist: E. Džeko)
47'FenerbahçeE. Džeko (assist: Sebastian Szymański)
86'FC MidtjyllandValdemar Byskov

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Fenerbahçe
13	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
456	Passes	397
353	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.62 · Fenerbahçe 1.69. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Midtjylland 13 · Fenerbahçe 7; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

Luís Godinho→

5.09

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “FC Midtjylland to win” at 37.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for FC Midtjylland, 1.69 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,336 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win37.4%

Draw22.4%

Fenerbahçe to win40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.62

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.69

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 58% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–19.7%1–28.4%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.