Nice–Bodo/Glimt

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 30 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'Bodo/GlimtF. Bjørkan (assist: I. Määttä)
74'NiceB. Bouanani (assist: G. Laborde)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nice		Bodo/Glimt
16	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
428	Passes	531
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nice 1.97 · Bodo/Glimt 1.16. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Nice 16 · Bodo/Glimt 18; on target 3 and 7.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Xhaja→

4.69

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Nice to win”. Second comes “Bodo/Glimt to win” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Nice, 1.16 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,577 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nice to win56.5%

Draw21.2%

Bodo/Glimt to win22.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	5

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nice score1.97

Attack: Nice score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.16

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Nice concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%1–19.7%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.