1899 Hoffenheim–FCSB

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 December 2024 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
1899 Hoffenheim		FCSB
14	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
69%	Possession	31%
662	Passes	299
567	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.50 · FCSB 1.57. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots 1899 Hoffenheim 14 · FCSB 8; on target 3 and 4.
1899 Hoffenheim kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

J. Xhaja→

4.50

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “FCSB to win”. Second comes “1899 Hoffenheim to win” at 36.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 1.57 for FCSB.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,421 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1899 Hoffenheim to win36.9%

Draw23.3%

FCSB to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1899 Hoffenheim score1.50

Attack: 1899 Hoffenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FCSB concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FCSB score1.57

Attack: FCSB score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: 1899 Hoffenheim concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.6%1–28.6%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.